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The writing on the wall is unmistakable: President Donald Trump is leading us into another reckless war, this time with Cuba.
Since the capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, the White House has been tightening the screws on Cuba in the hope that Cuba’s leaders will either capitulate or the Cuban people will rise up and overthrow them. Three months ago, Trump said Cuba "is going to fall pretty soon … they want to make a deal so badly … and we’ll see how that works out."
Like the president’s many mistaken predictions, there’s no sign of a deal and Cuba hasn’t fallen. Instead, the U.S. oil blockade has paralyzed Cuba’s economy and plunged the Cuban people into darkness and misery. If the tables were turned, we would denounce the blockade as an illegal act of war.
On May 20, the Justice Department announced the indictment of former Cuban President Raúl Castro, who is 95 years old, and that same day another U.S. aircraft carrier battle group arrived in the Caribbean Sea.
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Images of late Cuban President Fidel Castro, former President Raul Castro and current President Miguel Diaz-Canel are displayed on a billboard in Havana, Cuba, on April 12, 2023. (Alexandre Meneghini/Reuters)
Cuba is a bankrupt country about the same size as Virginia that has neither the capacity nor intention to threaten the United States. Even before the Trump administration cut off its oil, Cuba’s economy was barely functioning. Today, electricity is unavailable across the entire island. Hospitals, schools and factories have ground to a halt.
By causing Cuba’s economy to collapse and leaving millions of Cubans without enough food or access to medical care, the White House hopes to create a "national security emergency" to justify regime change, including, if necessary, by using military force.
There is plenty of blame to go around for how we got to this point. Cuba’s leaders, whose priority is holding onto power, have systematically violated the rights of the Cuban people and aligned themselves ideologically with some of the world’s worst regimes. The Cuban military’s corrupt grip on the economy has practically ruined the country.
For our part, the U.S. has tried to overthrow the Cuban regime by armed invasion, assassination, financing Cuban dissidents and imposing a web of punitive sanctions with extraterritorial reach. After 65 years the U.S. embargo has not achieved any of its goals, while only compounding the suffering of the Cuban people.
There is no doubt that political and economic change in Cuba are long overdue. The Cuban people — 90% of whom were born after the 1959 revolution — want leaders who accept the need for fundamental changes in how to govern, with greater participation of the people, greater transparency, greater freedom and real accountability.
But no matter what hyperbolic or false accusations are used as a pretext for attacking Cuba, the country poses no credible threat to the United States. Instead of starting another unnecessary war, the U.S. and Cuba can and should negotiate a deal that simultaneously puts our national interests and the needs and aspirations of the Cuban people first.
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The key elements of a deal are obvious:
Trump needs to end restrictions on the right of Americans to travel to Cuba. He should call on Congress to repeal the failed embargo so reconstruction and U.S. investment in private enterprises can begin.
By causing Cuba’s economy to collapse and leaving millions of Cubans without enough food or access to medical care, the White House hopes to create a "national security emergency" to justify regime change, including, if necessary, by using military force.
The president should remove Cuba from the list of state sponsors of terrorism, which has no credible legal or factual basis, no other country agrees with and which prevents Cubans from obtaining desperately needed international bank financing.
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The only prudent choice for Cuba’s leaders is to make a deal. They need to end the military’s control of the economy and take steps for U.S. companies to invest in Cuba and help rebuild the country’s broken infrastructure.
Cuba’s leaders must release all political dissidents and accept the right of the Cuban people to express themselves freely, without fear of persecution.
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With these actions, the two countries could finally put the last vestige of the Cold War in this hemisphere behind us.
But that is not where Trump is leading us, and like Maduro, Cuba’s leaders have always cared more about their own power and privilege than their people. Nobody in Cuba, or in America, should be under any illusions: an unauthorized, unjustified, reckless war with Cuba is where we are heading. And there is no Plan B if things don’t go as predicted, no plan for what comes next, and no plan for how to pay for it.
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An attack by the U.S. would pose real risks for our troops and for the Cuban people. It would be condemned in this hemisphere and around the world. Assuming Cuba’s leaders would eventually flee or be captured or killed, who would govern Cuba? Who would prevent the country from descending into lawlessness? Who would be responsible for public services? There is no Cuban Delcy Rodriguez, nor any organized political opposition. The American people would be saddled with the immense cost of securing and rebuilding Cuba, while millions of Cubans would likely abandon the island to seek refuge here in the United States.
The American people do not want a war with Cuba, especially not after the costly, ill-conceived debacle in Iran, which has defied all the administration’s rosy predictions. Rather than causing more suffering and chaos in Cuba and triggering another refugee crisis 90 miles from Florida, President Trump should seek to make history through effective deal-making, not by a violent "takeover" financed by American taxpayers.
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Peter Welch is a Democratic senator from Vermont.
