Israel's 'resounding' military campaign against Iran could be historic turning point, experts say

Israel’s military campaign in Iran has already produced "enormous achievements," according to experts tracking the conflict, with many citing the operation as the payoff for years of preparation, battlefield innovation and intelligence development.

Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a leading voice on U.S. policy toward Iran, called Israel’s progress "a resounding military win."

"They’ve actually dominated the Iranian military," Dubowitz told Fox News Digital. "They’ve taken out many senior military leaders, the Iranian Air Force, and a significant percentage of missile launchers and ballistic inventory."

Still, Iran’s retaliation is taking a toll. On Thursday morning, an Iranian missile struck Soroka Medical Center in Beersheba and targeted several major cities, injuring hundreds.  Despite the heavy costs, military experts insist that the IDF continues to hold the upper hand, both tactically and strategically.

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Since the beginning of Israel's war with Iran there have been over 600 Aerial Refuelings in the Middle Eastern Skies. (IDF)

Comparing the scale of success to the Six-Day War, Dubowitz said, "It’s starting to look like 1967, when the Israelis eviscerated five Arab armies. It may take longer than six days, but they’re certainly on that trajectory."

Hilla Hadad-Chmelnik, a strategist at "Mind Israel" think tank and former CEO of the Ministry of Innovation, noted that the success is no accident — it is the result of "years of preparation in every aspect." From developing long-range strike capabilities to building an unparalleled intelligence apparatus and adapting operational doctrines from Gaza and Lebanon, she said the IDF’s current dominance is a product of both innovation and experience.

"This is not a campaign someone decided to do six months ago," she said. "This is years of work — in intelligence, in weapons development, in defensive and offensive operations. The methods we tested against Hezbollah — striking command chains quickly and precisely — were studied, refined, and applied here."

A massive plume of smoke and fire rises from an oil refinery in southern Tehran following reports that an overnight Israeli strike targeted the site on June 15, 2025. (Atta Kenare/AFP)

She pointed to lessons learned in Gaza, especially the importance of rapidly identifying and eliminating rocket launchers before strikes even begin. "We learned through hard fighting that you have to neutralize launchers, not just intercept the missiles. And that doctrine — developed in Gaza where targets are five minutes away — has now been adapted to Iran, with all the complexity that entails."

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Fire and smoke rise into the sky after an Israeli attack on the Shahran oil depot on June 15, 2025, in Tehran, Iran. Iran's foreign minister said the country would respond "decisively and proportionally" to a wave of attacks that Israel launched beginning in the early hours of June 13. The attacks targeted multiple military, scientific and residential locations, as well as senior government officials.  (Stringer/Getty Images)

Hadad-Chmelnik stressed that Israel’s control over Iranian skies is "stunning … the Air Force is flying over Iran day after day. Drones are holding the skies."

Smokes raises from a building of the Soroka hospital complex after it was hit by a missile fired from Iran in Be'er Sheva, Israel, Thursday, June 19, 2025. (AP Photo/Leo Correa) (AP Photo/Leo Correa)

Even with the heavy toll taken when Iran's missiles get through, like the attack against Soroka hospital on Thursday, she credited the country’s defensive systems, like Iron Dome and David’s Sling — systems she helped develop — which intercepted missile salvos with over 90% effectiveness, even amid unprecedented barrages. "This is a war of a different scale, and yet the systems are holding," she said.

Dubowitz acknowledged that despite massive gains, one key target remains: the Fordow nuclear enrichment facility, buried under a mountain at a Revolutionary Guard base.

A map shows where Iran's most important nuclear facilities are situated. (Fox News)

"Israel has devastated Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. They’ve eliminated 14 senior nuclear scientists — the ‘Oppenheimers’ of Iran’s program," he said. "But Fordow remains. And if it’s left standing, Iran can rebuild."

While Dubowitz clarified that he is not explicitly calling for U.S. military strikes, he said that "President Trump must ensure Fordow is fully dismantled — whether through a diplomatic agreement or, if Iran refuses, a targeted military intervention."

He outlined three potential paths: "One, Iran shows up for a real deal and the program is dismantled. Two, Trump strikes Fordow. Three, Trump strikes and then negotiates. But either way, it has to end with Iran losing its nuclear weapons capability — not just temporarily, but permanently."

An Israeli fighter jet takes off for strikes in Tehran. (IDF)

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Hadad-Chmelnik, believes Israel’s success has created an opportunity for the United States.

"Thanks to the phenomenal achievements of the IDF, the situation is now very clear. If the U.S. were to join at this point, with Fordow as the main remaining target and most assets already degraded, it would not look like getting pulled into a quagmire," she said. "This is nothing like Ukraine or Afghanistan. There’s an actual path to decisive success, and that can change the political calculus in Washington."

Dubowitz added that Israel’s offensive struck not only military and nuclear targets, but also Iran’s internal security infrastructure — including state media and the regime’s repressive arms. for that, he said, could open the door for future domestic unrest. "We can’t expect people to protest while missiles are falling. But if Israel continues striking the regime’s tools of repression, space may open for Iranians to return to the streets."

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Dubowitz, who has spent two decades warning of Iran’s nuclear ambitions, reflected on the moment with cautious hope. "I’m heartened to see the long arm of Israeli justice reach those responsible for such brutal aggression," he said. 

"This may be a historic opportunity to truly end Iran’s nuclear threat, and perhaps even to support the Iranian people in reclaiming their future," he added, "There have been incredible achievements, but if Fordow is left standing by President Donald Trump, then it could end up being a Pyrrhic victory."